Our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction expects a tight, low-scoring game at the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday night. The match kicks off at 19:00 UTC (21:00 CEST) on 14 October 2026, on Matchday 2 of the Champions League league phase. Moreover, Jose Mourinho returns to Rome, this time in charge of Real Madrid. As a result, this is one of the most eye-catching fixtures of the week.

Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction: Match Preview

Roma are still unbeaten this season under Gian Piero Gasperini. In fact, they have won four and drawn two of their six Serie A games, and they sit third with 14 points. Their defence has been outstanding, conceding only three league goals so far. However, their attack has cooled recently. They drew 0-0 at Como on Sunday after a 2-2 home draw with Inter. In Europe, they opened with a 1-1 draw away at Fenerbahce.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, arrive after a mixed few weeks. They lost the Madrid derby 2-1 to Atletico, but they bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Villarreal on Saturday. Yan Diomande scored the winner after an assist from Federico Valverde. Even so, Vinicius Junior was sent off late in the game. In addition, Madrid started their Champions League campaign with a 2-1 win over Inter, with Kylian Mbappe and Valverde on target. Therefore, they sit third in La Liga with 18 points and already have three points in Europe.

Head-to-Head Record

These clubs have met 12 times in European competition. Real Madrid lead the record with eight wins, while Roma have won three, and one game ended in a draw. Notably, Madrid have won the last four meetings without conceding a goal. Here are the last five results:

  • Nov 2018 (Home): Roma 0-2 Real Madrid
  • Sep 2018 (Away): Real Madrid 3-0 Roma
  • Mar 2016 (Away): Real Madrid 2-0 Roma
  • Feb 2016 (Home): Roma 0-2 Real Madrid
  • Mar 2008 (Away): Real Madrid 1-2 Roma

Roma's last win in this fixture came at the Bernabeu in 2008, when they knocked Madrid out of the competition.

Roma vs Real Madrid form guide and head-to-head

Key Battle: Mbappe vs Gasperini's Defence

Mbappe is Real Madrid's biggest threat, and he already scored against Inter in the opening round. Gasperini's Roma, meanwhile, defend aggressively and man-mark across the pitch. That style has worked brilliantly in Serie A, where they have kept four clean sheets in six games. If Roma's defenders win their individual duels, Madrid will struggle to create clear chances. Otherwise, Mbappe's pace can punish any mistake in a high, man-to-man system.

What to Expect at the Olimpico

Expect an intense, physical game in front of a loud home crowd. Roma will press high and try to disrupt Madrid's rhythm. Mourinho's sides, by contrast, are usually compact and dangerous on the counter. For that reason, chances could be rare, especially in the first half. Meanwhile, set pieces may play a big part in a game between two well-organised teams.

Team News

According to reports, Bryan Cristante was listed as unavailable before Roma's trip to Como, so his fitness is worth checking. For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior's red card was in La Liga, so it should not affect his availability in Europe. Therefore, check the confirmed line-ups one hour before kick-off.

Kick-off Times and How to Watch

The match kicks off at 19:00 UTC (21:00 CEST) on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. That is 15:00 ET in Canada, 20:00 BST in the UK, 20:00 WAT in Nigeria, 21:00 SAST in South Africa, 22:00 EAT in Kenya, 00:30 IST on Thursday in India and 21:00 CEST in Norway and Sweden. Broadcast rights differ by country, so check your local broadcaster before the game.

Betting Tips

Goals look like the best market here. Roma have conceded only three goals in six league games, and they kept another clean sheet at Como on Sunday. In addition, Real Madrid's last two league games ended 2-1 and 1-0. That is why under 2.5 goals is our main tip. On the other hand, Madrid's quality and their excellent record in this fixture make them the better side to back for the result.

  • > Main tip: Under 2.5 goals
  • > Value tip: Real Madrid draw no bet
  • > Bonus tip: Kylian Mbappe to score anytime
  • > Predicted score: Roma 0-1 Real Madrid

Pick

Pick: Under 2.5 goals

Final Verdict

Overall, Roma's defence is in superb shape, but Real Madrid have dominated this fixture for almost two decades. Therefore, our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction is a cagey game with few goals and a narrow away win. For more analysis, read our Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction and our Man City vs PSG prediction, and follow the standings on the official UEFA website.

FAQ

Who will win Roma vs Real Madrid?

We expect Real Madrid to win, with 1-0 to Madrid as our predicted score.

What time does Roma vs Real Madrid kick off?

The game kicks off at 19:00 UTC (21:00 CEST) on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at the Stadio Olimpico.

When did Roma last beat Real Madrid?

Roma last beat Real Madrid in March 2008, winning 2-1 at the Bernabeu in the Champions League round of 16.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Free support is available at BeGambleAware.