Our Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction expects a tight, low-scoring game at Mendizorroza on Saturday. The match kicks off at 14:15 UTC (16:15 CEST) on 10 October 2026, on Matchday 8 of La Liga. Moreover, Atletico arrive full of confidence after beating Real Madrid in the derby. As a result, they will want to keep the pressure on leaders Barcelona.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Match Preview

Atletico Madrid are second in La Liga with 16 points from seven games. They have won five, drawn one and lost one, scoring 16 goals and conceding 7. In addition, their last game was a statement 2-1 home win over Real Madrid before the international break. They are five points behind Barcelona, who have won all seven league games.

Alaves, on the other hand, have been one of the surprise teams of the season. They sit sixth on 11 points, with three wins, two draws and two defeats. Their defence has been excellent, with only 6 goals conceded, one of the best records in the league. Their last match was a goalless draw away at Athletic Club. Therefore, Atletico can expect a very difficult afternoon.

Head-to-Head Record

Atletico lead the overall record with 11 wins from 18 meetings, while Alaves have won only 2. However, recent games at Mendizorroza tell a very different story. Atletico have not won on their last three visits, drawing two and losing one. Here are the last five results:

  • Jan 2026 (Away): Atletico 1-0 Alaves
  • Aug 2025 (Home): Alaves 1-1 Atletico
  • May 2025 (Home): Alaves 0-0 Atletico
  • Nov 2024 (Away): Atletico 2-1 Alaves
  • Apr 2024 (Home): Alaves 2-0 Atletico

Notably, none of the last five meetings produced more than three goals, and four of them had two goals or fewer.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid form guide and head-to-head


Key Battle: Atletico's Attack vs the Alaves Back Five

Alaves are expected to line up with five defenders and sit deep, which makes them very hard to break down. Atletico have scored 16 goals, but they often struggle against compact defensive blocks. Jan Oblak has been as reliable as ever at the other end. If Atletico score first, Alaves will have to come out, and space will open up. Otherwise, this could become a long, frustrating afternoon for the visitors.

What to Expect at Mendizorroza

Expect Atletico to have more of the ball, but Alaves to defend in numbers and look for set pieces. Mendizorroza is a small, noisy stadium, and the home crowd will push their team on. Meanwhile, Atletico have a Champions League game a few days later, so some rotation is likely. That could make them even less fluent in attack. For that reason, a cagey game with few clear chances looks likely.

Team News

Alaves are without Garces through suspension, while Koski and Mikel Rodriguez are reportedly out injured. For Atletico, Alexander Sorloth is a doubt with a muscle problem. Rotation is also possible because of the upcoming Champions League match. Therefore, check the confirmed line-ups one hour before kick-off.

Kick-off Times and How to Watch

The match kicks off at 14:15 UTC (16:15 CEST) on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz. That is 10:15 ET in Canada, 15:15 BST in the UK, 15:15 WAT in Nigeria, 16:15 SAST in South Africa, 17:15 EAT in Kenya, 19:45 IST in India and 16:15 CEST in Norway and Sweden. Broadcast rights differ by country, so check your local broadcaster before the game.

Betting Tips

The goals market looks like the best value in this game. Alaves have conceded only six goals in seven games, and recent meetings at Mendizorroza have been very tight. In addition, Atletico's likely rotation could limit their attacking quality. On the other hand, their overall strength makes them the safer side in the result market.

  • Main tip: Under 2.5 goals
  • Value tip: Atletico or Draw (Double Chance X2)
  • Bonus tip: Under 1.5 first-half goals
  • Predicted score: Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid

Pick

Pick: Under 2.5 goals

Final Verdict

Overall, Atletico have the better squad and the momentum from the derby, but Alaves are well organised and strong at home. Therefore, our Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction is a narrow away win in a low-scoring game. For more La Liga analysis, read our Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction and our Barcelona vs Getafe prediction, or visit the official La Liga website for the latest standings.

FAQ

Who will win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

We expect a narrow Atletico win, with 0-1 as our predicted score.

What time does Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kick off?

The game kicks off at 14:15 UTC (16:15 CEST) on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Mendizorroza.

When did Alaves last beat Atletico Madrid?

Alaves beat Atletico 2-0 at Mendizorroza in April 2024.

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